* Antibiotice is scheduled to report Q4/FY 2025 results on February 26.
* For Q4, we expect a net loss of RON 6.8m versus a net profit of RON 14.3m in Q4 2024, primarily driven by weaker revenues. Sales are seen at RON 149.6m (-11% Y/Y), reflecting a sharp contraction in domestic volumes amid inflationary pressure on purchasing power, a shift in prescribing patterns towards originator drugs, higher CNAS allocations to cost–volume contracts and reimbursement delays that constrained distributors. Operating expenses are likely to decline by only 3% Y/Y, implying negative EBIT of RON 4.7m compared to a positive RON 11.2m a year earlier. Below EBIT, net financial costs should increase Y/Y on higher interest expense and FX losses. Income tax is expected to turn slightly negative, versus a positive RON 3.3m in Q4 2024, as most 2025 capex relates to equipment still under implementation and therefore not eligible for tax credits.
* For FY 2025, we estimate net profit of RON 35.9m on sales of RON 618m (-8% Y/Y), implying a 65% decline Y/Y and a 66% shortfall versus budget.
* Please find below our Q4/FY 2025 earnings preview:
