Romania – Non-government loans up by 1.2% M/M and 9.1% Y/Y in Jun

Romania – Non-government loans up by 1.2% M/M and 9.1% Y/Y in Jun | NEUTRAL
• The figures recently released by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) show the increase of the non-government loans for the fifth month in a row in Jun, by 1.2% M/M (slowing down from 1.5% M/M), to RON 436.9bn, a record high level.
• The household loans climbed for the 17th month in a row in Jun, by 1.0% M/M to RON 199.1bn, also a record high level. However, the divergence between the LC and FX components resumed in Jun: the former climbed by 1.2% M/M to RON 182.6bn, while the latter contracted by 1.3% M/M to RON 16.5bn.
• The NFC loans advanced for the fifth month in a row in Jun, with the M/M pace decelerating to 1.4%, to RON 214bn, also a record high level. The LC segment rose by 0.8% M/M to RON 114.2bn, while the FX component climbed by 2.1% M/M to RON 99.8bn.
• Last, but not least, the FC loans increased for the fourth month in a row in Jun, by 0.9% M/M to RON 23.8bn, a record high level.
• In Y/Y terms the non-government loans decelerated from 9.7% in May to 9.1% in Jun, the lowest rate since Apr, but in line with our forecast.
• There can be noticed the divergence between the acceleration of the household loans and the slowing down of the NFC loans.
• The annual pace of the household loans accelerated from 9.8% in May to 10.0% in Jun, the highest rate since Jun 2018, due to the improvement of the LC component to 12.9%, the maximum since Mar. The FX segment contracted for the 150th month in a row in Jun, by 14.8% Y/Y.
• The Y/Y rate of the NFC loans decelerated from 9.0% in May to 8.1% in Jun, the weakest since Apr 2025, due to the slowing-down of the LC segment from 8.8% to 5.3%, the minimum since Nov 2023. The FX component accelerated from 9.2% Y/Y in May to 11.5% Y/Y in Jun, the maximum since Dec 2023.
• Last, but not least, the FC loans continued to increase by a double-digit Y/Y rate in Jun, but slowing-down to 11.0%, the weakest since Apr 2021.
• After adjusting for inflation, the non-government loans increased for the 13th month in a row in Jun, but the annual pace decelerated to 3.1%, the weakest since Aug 2024.
• Our view: the evolution of the non-government loans in Jun was in line with our previous forecast (updated last month). In the revised scenario (updated by the incorporation of the most recent macro-financial developments) the non-government loans would increase by average annual rates of 8.7% in 2025 (vs. 8.6%), 7.6% in 2026 (vs. 7.7%) and 7.5% in 2027 (vs. 7.7%), as can be noticed in the right-hand side chart. This scenario is supported by several factors, including the prospects for the improvement of the fixed investments in the economy, and the outlook for the central bank to resume the interest rate cutting cycle by the end of 2025