The data released by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) this morning show the increase of the consumer prices by 0.88% M/M in Feb. There can be noticed the advance of the prices of non-food goods (47.10% of the basket) by 1.08% M/M, an evolution mainly determined by the increase of the prices of natural gas by 9.08% M/M. The prices of the food goods (33.60% of the basket) climbed by 0.73% M/M in Feb, as the prices of the vegetables rose by 2.94% M/M. The services’ tariffs inched up by 0.66% M/M, being noticed the increase of the prices of medical care and hygiene and cosmetics by 1.47% M/M and 2.57% M/M, respectively. The Y/Y pace of the consumer prices consolidated at 5.0% in Feb, the lowest level since Oct 2024. In HICP terms, the annual pace of the consumer prices decelerated from 5.3% in Jan to 5.2% in Feb (also the minimum since Oct), above our forecast of 4.8%.
Our view: we revised the forecasts for the evolution of the annual pace of the consumer prices (HICP base) in the mid-run, by incorporating the figures released by NIS this morning. The updated forecasts point to the increase of the consumer prices by average annual paces slowing down to 5.0% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026 (vs. 4.1%) and 2.9% in 2027 (vs. 3.2%). This scenario is supported by several factors, including the restrictive monetary policy in the short-run. In this context, the manoeuvre room of the central bank to cut the monetary policy rate increases in 2026 and 2027 | NEUTRAL
