According to the figures released by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) this morning, the value of the exports of goods rose for the fifth month in a row in Jan, but the Y/Y pace decelerated to 2.4%, to EUR 7.3bn, due to the contraction of the EU component by 2.4% Y/Y to EUR 5.1bn (determined by the weak macroeconomic climate in Euroland, the main economic partner), partially counterbalanced by the increase of the non-EU segment by 16.3% Y/Y to EUR 2.1bn. The value of the imports of goods also climbed for the fifth month in a row in Jan, but by an accelerating Y/Y pace to 10.3%, to EUR 10.0bn, an evolution supported by the strong expansionary income policy in the recent quarters. There can be noticed the advance of the imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials by 30.6% Y/Y to EUR 0.9bn and the increase of the imports of manufactured goods classified mainly by raw materials by 17.6% Y/Y to EUR 1.8bn. Overall, the EU imports rose by 4.2% Y/Y to EUR 6.9bn, while the non-EU imports climbed by 27.1% Y/Y to EUR 3.0bn. Therefore, the intl’ trade gap with goods intensified by 38.5% Y/Y to EUR 2.7bn in Jan, as the EU segment widened by 29.1% Y/Y to EUR 1.8bn, while the non-EU component increased by 61.3% Y/Y to EUR 0.9bn.
Our view: the evolution of international trade with goods and of public finance in Jan express prospects for the persistence of the twin deficits at very high levels in the coming quarters. In this context, the probability of a severe adjustment of the twin deficits in the short-run is increasing, unless additional fiscal consolidation measures are implemented, especially in a scenario of severe deterioration of the risk perception on the international financial markets. In our core macroeconomic scenario (revised last week-end by incorporating the data regarding the dynamics of the GDP and components in 2024, published by Eurostat at the end of last week) the Y/Y pace of the volume of total exports (goods and services) would gradually improve, to 2.0% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, and 3.7% in 2027. For the volume of the total imports (goods and services) our forecast express prospects for increase by Y/Y paces of 1.5% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026, and 3.5% in 2027 | NEGATIVE
